One of the basic principles of economics is that there is no such thing as a free lunch. Nothing is truly free, because even if something has no monetary cost, the time it takes to acquire or consume the thing is time you can’t spending doing something else.
People seduced by modern monetary theory (MMT) over the last decade and a half should be realizing that their promised free lunch is not truly free. MMT basically says that governments can print all the money they want without having any negative consequences on the economy. The rapid increase in inflation and mortgage rates over the last couple of years demonstrates that there is a consequence for recklessly extravagant government spending.
Prior to the blissful ignorance of MMT proponents, economists frequently talked about the crowding out effect and monetary devaluation (i.e., inflation) of excessive government debt. When the government has to borrow money to cover a deficit, the extra demand for financial resources drives up the price of money (i.e., interest rates) for everyone. For a long time, international investors were willing to buy up a large share of the debt issued by the Federal Reserve, so rates did not rise as would be expected.
This emboldened the MMT proponents whose advice encouraged free-spending politicians looking to buy favor from the electorate and their campaign donors. Unfortunately, the massive increase in spending during the COVID response coincided with reduced debt purchases by foreign investors and bought MMT face-to-face with reality. As philosopher Dallas Willard wrote, “We can think of reality as what you run into when you are wrong.”
How much did spending increase? According to the Economic Report of the President (Table B-46), over the last decade (2015-2024) government revenue increased 2.8% (the 2023 and 2024 figures are estimates). Over that same period government spending increased 24%. To put that in perspective, over the decade before that (2005-2015), government revenue increased 3.6% compared to spending increasing 4.7%.
Looking at the foreign share of the debt (Table B-52), from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2022, the federal debt increased 32.6% ($7.7 trillion), but the foreign ownership of the debt only increased 5.2% ($365B). The foreign share of the debt dropped from 29% to 23%. That means the new borrowing was done domestically, so the impact on the economy is no longer covered up by foreign investors.
The cost comes from both increased prices and increased interest rates. Using Consumer Price Index figures from the Minneapolis Fed, the last five years of data (2019-2023) shows an increase of 19%, over triple the previous five-year period: CPI grew 6.1% from 2014-2018. If you buy your own groceries, you’ll realize that some prices increased even more. Here are a few I tracked between 2020 and 2023:
- Distilled water – up 22%
- Whole milk – up 42%
- Greek yogurt – up 49%
- Canned cat food – up 37%
The chart below shows the 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgage rates over the last ten years (Source: FreddieMac). The rates were down to 2.66% in December 24, 2020, likely due to the lockdowns in response to COVID. Since then, they’ve shot up to 7.79% on October 26, 2023 (the last data point on the graph). Bankrate reported that the average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages was 8.01% during the final week of October. (There is some difference in the data as FreddieMac numbers are “based on actual applications from lenders across the country that are submitted to Freddie Mac” and Bankrate’s numbers are based on a “weekly national survey of large lenders.”)

What does this mean for you? More expensive homes that cost more to finance.
The 2019 edition of my book used an example of a $200,000 home, financed at 4% after a 20% down payment. That results in a payment of $763.86 and a total interest of $114,991 paid over the 30-year term. For the 2023 edition, I used a $300,000 home, financed at 7% with 20% down. The monthly payment doubled ($1,596.73) and the total interest paid nearly tripled ($334,821). That was written while rates were still climbing.
That same $300,000 home financed at 8% instead of 7% will have a monthly payment that is 10% more ($165) and cost nearly 18% more ($60,000) in total interest over the life of the loan.
Things would be even worse if you buy an average home. I used the $300K figure assuming a smaller, entry-level home. According to the St Louis Fed, the average sale price of houses sold in the U.S. rose from $375K in Q2 2020 to $552K in Q4 2022. That’s a 47% increase, well above inflation based on CPI.
Thanks to politicians using MMT to justify their spending habits, 2023 is a terrible time to be a home buyer.




